What does Tchaikovsky鈥檚 Swan Lake have to do with Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine? Why did Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy decide to stay in Kyiv? And how are Zelenskyy and Russian president Vladimir Putin controlling the narrative, each in their own way?
From a recent campus discussion among four 乐播传媒 faculty members with wide-ranging expertise in the issues at play in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, here are 10 takeaways.
The narrative isn’t new
One of Putin鈥檚 biggest defenses of his invasion of Ukraine is that the current Ukrainian governing body is, in fact, illegitimate.
In 2014, during the Revolution of Dignity, Viktor Yanukovych, then president of Ukraine, declined to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union, instead choosing to strengthen ties with Russia.
Ukrainians disagreed with this decision, and the Ukrainian parliament unanimously voted to remove Yanukovych as president, resulting in him fleeing the country, fearing retaliation. Putin鈥檚 perspective is that the government that replaced Yanukovych is illegitimate, and he uses this to back his claim that the invasion intends to 鈥渇ree鈥� Ukrainians from their oppressors.
鈥淔rom the top of the Russian government down, it’s a pollution of nationalists and neo-Nazis who have, as their goal, the erasure of Ukraine’s true history, in which Ukraine returns to its appropriate place, as part of Russia,鈥� said Professor Emeritus of Russian Dennis Browne during Wednesday鈥檚 discussion, sponsored by the Department of German and Russian Studies and by the Program in European Studies.
鈥淭his is what I would call the pollution of Ukrainian extremist arguments. I don’t see any off ramp on either side of this today.鈥�
Ukraine is no ‘border zone’
Putin claims Ukraine is a 鈥渂rother鈥� to Russia, part of its own civilization.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tried hard to redefine Ukraine鈥檚 identity, starting with associating it in the world鈥檚 eyes as part of Europe (including formally seeking membership in the European Union, which experts say would take months if not years).
Zelenskyy is trying to inspire empathy and a sense of camaraderie with the rest of Europe.
鈥溾�嬧�婳ne of the things that was immediately apparent at the very beginning of this crisis was that there was what we might call a PR crisis, where essentially the world hadn’t thought about Ukraine since 2014,鈥� says Cheryl Stephenson, lecturer in Russian.
The public relations crisis is that the rest of Europe 鈥� and the U.S. 鈥� understands Ukraine as 鈥渁 kind of a seam or a border land,鈥� says Stephenson.
Ukraine exists 鈥渂etween the concept of Europe and the concept of Russia, between concepts like East and West, democracy and authoritarianism, civilized, and uncivilized are words that are being used a lot right now.鈥�
‘On-the-fly mythmaking’
Zelenskyy seeks to change the concept of Ukraine as a buffer zone between Russia and the rest of Europe.
Instead, Zelenskyy wants the rest of the world to see Ukraine as a seam, where Russia isn鈥檛 almost invading Europe; it is invading Europe. Which makes Putin鈥檚 threat to Ukraine a threat to the rest of Europe.
So how is Zelenskyy attempting to re-identify Ukraine and give the rest of the world a reason to help?
Zelenskyy鈥檚 decision to stay in Kyiv and his constant updates and videos are not only to boost morale, says Stephenson, but they also serve as a way to transform national and international narratives about Ukraine.
鈥淸It鈥檚 a] kind of on-the-fly mythmaking, and like all kinds of myth, myths that surround nations are powerful regardless of their truth value,鈥� says Stephenson.
鈥淭heir power is connected to the kind of emotions that they invoke in people, both about others and about the self. And that’s very actively going on in these very brief social media interactions between the Ukrainian government, and between international audiences and the people of Ukraine.鈥�
Various social media accounts for the Ukrainian government have begun to be regularly translated for international audiences while other people are translating memes and messages that promote Ukrainian culture and values, and this all helps boost Zelenskyy鈥檚 narrative, says Stephenson.
Sphere of influence = right to interfere?
Putin sees Russia鈥檚 sphere of influence as international, so he believes he has the right to interfere in Ukraine and, specifically, to interfere in their government. This isn鈥檛 a new idea, nor is it unique to Putin.
Referring to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Professor of Politics Jim Richter noted that 鈥渢his is the second time in this young century that a great power has invaded a country of over 40 million people without provocation and in violation of international law.鈥�
And in both cases, said Richter, who chairs the Program in European Studies, 鈥渢he population of that great power 鈥� and possibly the decision-makers as well 鈥� were under the impression, perhaps delusionally, that the local population would celebrate the invaders as liberators and greet them with flowers and celebrations.
鈥淢ost people now agree that the invasion of Iraq, regardless of its moral implications, was a complete and massive strategic blunder.鈥�
Wary and weary of war
鈥淩ussians, I think, are generally averse to war. They accept it when necessary,鈥� said Richter. 鈥淩ussians have a knowledge of war that people in the U.S. do not. They get the stories from their grandparents. It’s still a living memory, the absolute horrors of war 鈥� but also the necessity of war in certain times.鈥�
Putin believes that the way to convince Russians of the necessity of war is to control the narrative, using his rhetoric to unify their beliefs and identity as Russians.
鈥淚 think Putin hoped he could control the narrative enough,鈥� Richter said. 鈥淏ut with the resistance of Ukrainians, the length of time in the war, the costs and the economy, the resistance likely to grow, the harsher repression that’s going to happen in Russia, that鈥檚 going to be more and more difficult to maintain.鈥�
Echo, echo
Putin has surrounded himself with people who agree with him, creating an echo chamber that rings with his own voice.
That鈥檚 caused problems in Putin鈥檚 strategy, says Richter, and led to his underestimating the determination of Ukrainians to fight and underestimating the willingness of many other countries to defend Ukraine against Russia.
From accepting Ukrainians fleeing their besieged homes, to offering food and medical supplies, to volunteering to fight alongside Ukrainian soldiers, much of the rest of the world has taken a stand with Ukraine.
But underestimation isn鈥檛 Putin鈥檚 only problem, says Richter. He鈥檚 also overestimated his own military, and the willingness of Russians to support his decision to invade Ukraine.
While some polls show high Russian support of Putin鈥檚 decision, those polls are being released at a time when Putin is tightly holding the reins of information circulating within and coming out of Russia.
鈥楾here is no war in Ba Sing Se鈥�
On March 4, Putin signed a new law against the spread of 鈥渇alse information鈥� about Russian armed forces. Punishable by up to 15 years in prison, 鈥渇alse information鈥� includes using the term 鈥渨ar鈥� to refer to what鈥檚 happening in Ukraine; instead, Putin says, it鈥檚 a 鈥渟pecial military operation.鈥�
Other taboo words include 鈥渋nvasion,鈥� and using 鈥淣azi鈥� and 鈥淗itler鈥� to refer to Putin. Encouraged words are 鈥渄emilitarize鈥� and 鈥渄e-Nazify鈥� in reference to Putin鈥檚 鈥渟pecial military operation鈥� in Ukraine. Enemies are 鈥渇oreign agents.鈥�
It鈥檚 right out of the animated series Avatar: The Last Airbender, where citizens are forced to repeat the phrase 鈥渢here is no war in Ba Sing Se,鈥� the mythical city-state, until they are brainwashed.
Of course, the result has been widespread and creative wordplay, as Russian media and citizens circumvent the new law, from using antonyms to deliver an easily-deciphered message, to creating memes to lift spirits.
Lecturer in Russian Marina Filipovic gives the example of a meme in which the cover of Leo Tolstoy鈥檚 War and Peace has been doctored to read Special Military Operation and Peace.
鈥淚t became viral. People are sharing it, reading it, and this wordplay brings comical relief in these distrustful times,鈥� says Filipovic. Through the meme, 鈥渢hey can speak.鈥�
Access to news
While Putin is blocking access to and banning media outlets and social media platforms, Filipovic described how Russians are still finding ways to communicate with each other and share resources.
They鈥檙e using apps instead of browsers to access social media, sharing and signing petitions condemning Putin鈥檚 war, and circumventing the ban on Facebook (which Filipovic said only 7 percent of Russians use) with the more popular Russian messaging and social media platform, Telegram, and social media platform V Kontakte.
But blocking Facebook could just be a sign of what鈥檚 to come, says Filipovic.
鈥淏y limiting access to Facebook, what the government wants to signal is what may happen to the actual Russian equivalent, VK, if certain censored things are being promoted.鈥�
Swan song
On March 1, Russia鈥檚 last independent TV news station, TV Rain, was blocked by Putin, but not before they delivered one final, poignant message, .
There was a message in that medium: In 1991, during the failed Soviet coup d鈥櫭﹖at that tried to take down Mikhail Gorbachev, the government played a video of Swan Lake on TV stations for three days to block information from being delivered.
鈥淧laying this in the moment as they’re leaving the TV station is a high level symbolic gesture,鈥� says Filipovic.
Outcome unknown, expansion unlikely
Richter said the possibility of Putin expanding his war into the rest of Europe is unlikely.
鈥淚 think there is something in Russian military doctrine that says, 鈥楨scalate to de-escalate.鈥� Putin is still going to be pushing. He’s still got other things to do on the ground before he would go that far. I think it’s going to be really brutal, but I don’t think he’s going to expand at this point. I think he knows that that would be too dangerous.鈥�
Still, 鈥渋t’s going to be a long stretch,鈥� said Browne.
Questions about how long Russia鈥檚 military will be able to continue attacking Ukraine can鈥檛 be easily answered. Nor can the question of nuclear warfare.
鈥淭he thing that worries me are the nuclear power plants and the reactors 鈥� not so much being hit by weapons, but the staff under pressure constantly,鈥� says Browne.
鈥淵ou don’t just go, 鈥榃ell, we’re having a war, so let’s turn the plant off.鈥� It has to be done by experts, engineers who know what they’re doing. And I’ll be honest, one of my biggest fears is some kind of a leak that just comes from maintenance issues.鈥�
Want more?
The panelists each shared their go-to sources for news about Russia and Ukraine:
- Filipovic recommends reading , a journalist for the New Yorker and author of a book about Putin, The Man Without a Face.
- Stephenson recommends reading and , both historians and writers, and the book The Gates of Europe, by historian and writer Serhii Plokhy.
- Richter recommends reading The Guardian.
- Browne recommends reading and the
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